In the heavy truck market since 2015, good news has been hard to find. From January to April, the year-on-year decline of the entire market reached 34%, and the decline of the gas vehicle segment reached an astonishing 50%. The table below shows that the output of the natural gas heavy truck market from January to April was only 5,400 units, a 50% decrease from 10,800 units in the same period last year. Moreover, since the cumulative decline of the natural gas heavy truck market from January to March is 45%, this means that the decline of the natural gas heavy truck market continues to expand.

Analysis by the First Commercial Vehicle Network believes that the decline of the natural gas heavy truck market is mainly due to two reasons. The first is the decline of the "broad market". In 2015, the domestic heavy truck market can be said to have suffered the most severe decline since 2013. From January to April, the cumulative sales of the heavy truck market were 193,300 units, a significant decrease of 34% from the 290,800 units in the same period last year. A net decrease of Sales volume is close to 100,000 units. There are many reasons for the sharp decline in the heavy truck market. The most important ones are the continued deceleration of the macro economy and the continuous decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment. The author has made a detailed analysis before and will not go into details here.

As a market segment of the heavy truck industry, the sharp decline of natural gas heavy trucks is understandable due to the downturn in the logistics and transportation market and the extremely low demand for car purchases.

The second reason for the decline in the natural gas heavy truck market is that the spread between gas prices and oil prices does not have a clear advantage for the time being. According to statistics, from the beginning of 2014 to the present, domestic oil prices have been adjusted a total of 27 times, including 9 upward adjustments (5 occurred in 2015 and 4 in 2014) and 18 downward adjustments. Overall, the price of oil has increased The level is much lower than at the beginning of 2014. Taking No. 0 diesel in Beijing as an example, the diesel price after the reduction on January 11, 2014 was 7.71 yuan/liter, and the diesel price after the reduction on October 18, 2014 was still above 7 yuan (7.04 yuan/liter); arrive On January 27, 2015, the lowest price of No. 0 diesel reached 5.40 yuan/liter. On May 12, 2015, the latest round of price increases was 6.33 yuan/liter, which was still lower than the price in most of 2014.

Although the price of vehicle LNG has also been adjusted during the same period, it is relatively stable compared with oil prices. You must know that the purchase price of natural gas heavy trucks is much higher than that of diesel heavy trucks. The greater the price difference between LNG and diesel (the higher the price of diesel, the lower the price of LNG), the stronger the driving force for users to purchase natural gas vehicles. In 2014, the overall price of diesel was still relatively high. The price difference between gas and diesel was large. Users recovered the purchase cost quickly. In addition, factors such as the general increase in the price of National IV diesel vehicles drove the natural gas heavy truck market to increase by 37% year-on-year in 2014; by 2015 In 2016, the price difference between gas and diesel has narrowed, and users’ desire to buy natural gas heavy trucks has naturally been greatly reduced.

Shaanxi Automobile continues to top the list, and the market is unlikely to see much improvement throughout the year.

From the perspective of the market structure, Shaanxi Automobile continues to maintain its position as the No. 1 natural gas heavy truck market. The company has been the leader for many consecutive years. From January to April, Shaanxi Automobile produced 1,396 gas vehicles, with a market share of 25.7%; it was followed by Dongfeng and FAW, which produced 1,043 and 698 vehicles respectively, with a market share of 19.2% and 12.9%. However, the production and sales entities in Dongfeng Motor's system are relatively complex. Some natural gas trucks are small-tonnage medium-heavy trucks and medium-light trucks. If these factors are excluded, the performance of Dongfeng's large-tonnage gas-fired heavy trucks is still not as good as that of FAW.

The fourth-placed Foton Motor (including Foton Daimler) produced 443 natural gas heavy trucks from January to April, ranking fourth with China National Heavy Duty Truck, with both market shares of 8.2%. The cumulative output of Valin Xingma is 257 units, with a market share of 4.7%; the output of JAC natural gas heavy trucks is 190 units, with a market share of 3.5%.

Overall, judging from the current situation, it is difficult for the natural gas heavy truck market to see a major turnaround in 2015. A double-digit decline for the whole year is almost certain, and the extent of the decline will depend on whether the overall market can pick up in the second half of the year. , as well as the speed and number of diesel price increases.

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